WEBVTT 1 00:00:41.950 --> 00:00:43.110 Hello, everyone. 2 00:00:45.690 --> 00:00:50.880 Wanted to give a few minutes for people to go ahead and log in to the webinar then I'm going to go ahead and get 3 00:00:50.880 --> 00:00:56.730 started. My name is Lakisha Ann Woods, I'm the president and CEO of the National 4 00:00:56.730 --> 00:00:58.120 Institute of Building Sciences. 5 00:00:58.920 --> 00:01:04.890 We were established in 1974 by Congress to ensure that all areas of the built environment work together 6 00:01:05.280 --> 00:01:11.130 to utilize the best of technology and focus on sustainability when creating the places where we 7 00:01:11.130 --> 00:01:12.510 live, work, learn and play. 8 00:01:13.140 --> 00:01:18.750 Developing research and convening experts to solve problems is a part of our overall mission. 9 00:01:19.110 --> 00:01:21.140 And that is why we have brought you all together today. 10 00:01:22.970 --> 00:01:28.520 Since 1980, the United States has sustained over one point six 11 00:01:28.520 --> 00:01:32.210 trillion dollars in losses due to natural disasters. 12 00:01:33.190 --> 00:01:38.620 The losses have trended upward during this period because of the escalating frequency and 13 00:01:38.620 --> 00:01:44.290 severity of weather related disasters and the population growth and hazard prone 14 00:01:44.290 --> 00:01:46.240 areas such as the Gulf Coast. 15 00:01:47.520 --> 00:01:52.890 Weather related disasters include floods, hurricanes, tropical storms, tornadoes, 16 00:01:52.890 --> 00:01:56.970 wildfires, droughts, winter storms and extreme temperatures. 17 00:01:57.980 --> 00:02:03.830 Disaster losses grow about six percent per year, ten times faster than the 18 00:02:03.830 --> 00:02:07.730 population, future disasters are inevitable. 19 00:02:08.450 --> 00:02:14.000 More than ever, mitigating against natural disaster is of paramount importance. 20 00:02:16.010 --> 00:02:21.740 In 2005, the National Institute of Building Sciences released a study called Natural 21 00:02:21.740 --> 00:02:27.680 Hazard Mitigation Saves, an independent study to assess the future savings from 22 00:02:27.680 --> 00:02:29.200 mitigation activities. 23 00:02:30.020 --> 00:02:35.720 The study answered a key question asked by US Congress about FEMA's mitigation grants 24 00:02:35.720 --> 00:02:38.200 program. Is it a good investment? 25 00:02:39.320 --> 00:02:45.110 The study found that for every public dollar spent on mitigation, the scientists 26 00:02:45.110 --> 00:02:48.220 say society saves four dollars. 27 00:02:48.990 --> 00:02:54.080 The subsequent NIBS studies in 2017, 2018 and 2019 28 00:02:54.260 --> 00:03:00.200 expanded the scope and evaluated broader mitigation measures and found that mitigation 29 00:03:00.200 --> 00:03:06.080 saves up to thirteen dollars for every dollar invested across perils including flood, 30 00:03:06.290 --> 00:03:10.940 hurricane surge, wind, earthquake and wildland urban interface fire. 31 00:03:11.810 --> 00:03:17.660 Today, we are here to share with you our latest transportation case study that found investment 32 00:03:17.660 --> 00:03:22.670 on key infrastructure could save us fifty dollars for every dollar invested. 33 00:03:23.950 --> 00:03:26.710 I'm going to introduce to you our speakers today. 34 00:03:27.630 --> 00:03:29.610 First, we have Dan Pippenger. 35 00:03:30.210 --> 00:03:35.550 Dan was named the port of Portland's chief operating officer in January 2020. 36 00:03:36.400 --> 00:03:41.590 In this role, he is responsible for the operation of the Portland International Airport 37 00:03:42.190 --> 00:03:46.720 to general aviation airports and all of the ports, marine terminals. 38 00:03:47.670 --> 00:03:53.190 Dan has been with the port since 2006 in his previous role as the director of 39 00:03:53.190 --> 00:03:59.190 planning and development, he oversaw long range and land use planning, capital program 40 00:03:59.190 --> 00:04:04.920 development and asset management, site and facility design and the Ports Tenant Improvement 41 00:04:04.920 --> 00:04:10.830 Program. Dan also served as the ports director of Marine Operations, a position he was 42 00:04:10.830 --> 00:04:16.550 well suited for thanks to a bachelor's degree in marine engineering from the US Coast Guard Academy. 43 00:04:17.430 --> 00:04:23.280 Master's degree in both naval architecture and ocean engineering from MIT and 44 00:04:23.280 --> 00:04:28.740 his 20 years of service in the United States Coast Guard, where he retired with the rank of 45 00:04:28.740 --> 00:04:32.430 commander. Dan and his wife live in Portland and have three daughters. 46 00:04:33.360 --> 00:04:35.490 Our next speaker is Keith Porter. 47 00:04:36.420 --> 00:04:41.960 Dr. Porter is a professional engineer and principal of the Denver consulting firm SPA Risk. 48 00:04:42.780 --> 00:04:47.880 He helps corporations, communities and nations improve their disaster resilience. 49 00:04:48.540 --> 00:04:54.180 He led the Natural Hazard Mitigation, Save Studies for NIBS and led the engineering 50 00:04:54.180 --> 00:04:56.730 research on four groundbreaking. 51 00:04:58.710 --> 00:05:04.260 USGS planning scenarios shake out arkstorm, tsunami 52 00:05:04.470 --> 00:05:10.200 and heywired, thanks to shake out one percent of the world's population annually 53 00:05:10.320 --> 00:05:11.880 prepares for earthquakes. 54 00:05:12.830 --> 00:05:18.440 His doctoral research helped lead to FEMA's revolutionary performance based seismic design 55 00:05:18.440 --> 00:05:20.660 guideline, FEMA P-58. 56 00:05:21.320 --> 00:05:26.810 He is a fellow of the Structural Engineering Institute and of the American Society of Civil Engineers. 57 00:05:27.910 --> 00:05:29.110 Our next speaker is Dr. 58 00:05:29.110 --> 00:05:34.270 JQ. He is the executive director of the Multi Hazard Mitigation 59 00:05:34.960 --> 00:05:39.080 and Building Seismic Safety Council at the National Institute of Building Sciences. 60 00:05:39.670 --> 00:05:41.050 In his role, Dr. 61 00:05:41.050 --> 00:05:46.510 Yuan leads and manages multidisciplinary teams, programs and coordinates 62 00:05:46.510 --> 00:05:50.800 activities to develop new initiatives in emerging areas and building science. 63 00:05:51.490 --> 00:05:57.280 He is actively involved in the development of guidelines, codes, standards and applied 64 00:05:57.280 --> 00:05:59.830 research programs in various buildings science fields. 65 00:06:00.520 --> 00:06:01.870 He is a licensed engineer. 66 00:06:03.220 --> 00:06:08.830 And researcher with more than 15 years of research and development experience in earthquake 67 00:06:08.830 --> 00:06:14.710 engineering, natural hazard mitigation and engineering research, prior to joining NIBS, 68 00:06:14.860 --> 00:06:20.650 Dr. Yuan was a researcher at the Federal Highway Administration, Turner Fairbank Highway Research Center. 69 00:06:21.370 --> 00:06:26.710 He was also an adjunct professor at George Mason University and George Washington University. 70 00:06:27.720 --> 00:06:30.420 Last, we have today's moderator, Stephen Cauffman. 71 00:06:30.850 --> 00:06:33.640 Mr. Cauffman is the acting resilience service branch chief. 72 00:06:34.060 --> 00:06:39.960 However, before taking over this role, he served as the planning section chief in the branch, as 73 00:06:39.960 --> 00:06:41.060 the acting branch chief. 74 00:06:41.070 --> 00:06:46.650 He now oversees the development and the deployment of assessment products such as the Infrastructure Survey 75 00:06:46.650 --> 00:06:52.920 Tool, Infrastructure Visualization Platform and the Regional Resilience 76 00:06:52.920 --> 00:06:53.840 Assessment Program. 77 00:06:54.480 --> 00:07:00.210 The branch is also responsible for the development of the infrastructure, resilience planning framework and associated 78 00:07:00.210 --> 00:07:06.030 tools. Previously, he worked for the National Institute of Standards and Technology for 19 years. 79 00:07:06.750 --> 00:07:12.330 Most recently, he was a key member of the Community Resilience Group, where he led efforts to implement the 80 00:07:12.330 --> 00:07:15.900 Community Resilience Planning Guide to support local resilience planning. 81 00:07:16.560 --> 00:07:22.470 Mr. Cauffman held several leadership positions in earnest, including leader of the Structures Group, Deputy Chief and 82 00:07:22.470 --> 00:07:25.150 Acting Chief of the Materials and Structural Systems Division. 83 00:07:25.770 --> 00:07:31.710 He was the program manager for this study of the World Trade Center disaster and led a twenty six member 84 00:07:31.710 --> 00:07:37.350 team to study the performance of buildings and infrastructure during Hurricanes Katrina and 85 00:07:37.350 --> 00:07:39.120 Rita. Mr. 86 00:07:39.120 --> 00:07:44.910 Cauffman also served as one of the oversight committee members for the study. 87 00:07:46.210 --> 00:07:50.830 Well, we have a great lineup today, so I will now turn it over to our moderator, Stephen. 88 00:07:50.860 --> 00:07:51.640 The floor is yours. 89 00:07:53.350 --> 00:07:54.310 Thank you very much. 90 00:07:55.150 --> 00:07:58.660 Good afternoon and thank you for joining us this afternoon. 91 00:08:00.880 --> 00:08:06.520 So I want to take a few moments to go over some housekeeping items 92 00:08:06.940 --> 00:08:10.070 and just kind of set the stage for this afternoon's panel. 93 00:08:10.520 --> 00:08:16.240 First, each of our panel members will have roughly eight to 10 minutes, will they, 94 00:08:16.480 --> 00:08:19.660 where they will discuss the project. 95 00:08:19.670 --> 00:08:25.540 So I'll turn it over to Keith Porter first and he'll discuss the mitigation study. 96 00:08:25.540 --> 00:08:30.250 And then I'll go to Dan Pippinger from the Port of Portland. 97 00:08:31.120 --> 00:08:35.590 And then finally to JQ Yuan. 98 00:08:35.590 --> 00:08:41.530 Participants are able to type in their questions for the panelists by selecting the Q&A button 99 00:08:41.530 --> 00:08:43.030 in the Zoom interface. 100 00:08:43.810 --> 00:08:45.940 I'll select the questions from that list. 101 00:08:45.940 --> 00:08:47.830 After all the panelists have spoken. 102 00:08:48.640 --> 00:08:54.190 Please note there are a large number of participants so we'll try to get to as many questions as we possibly can. 103 00:08:55.000 --> 00:09:01.000 And then finally the session will be recorded and the reporting will be available for replay on 104 00:09:01.000 --> 00:09:04.120 the NIBS.org website by the end of the week. 105 00:09:05.020 --> 00:09:10.420 We'll also be posting a blog post of today's session that will be available on the 106 00:09:10.420 --> 00:09:16.010 NIBS.org website later this week, including any prominent websites that may be covered. 107 00:09:17.380 --> 00:09:21.670 So let me just start with some remarks. 108 00:09:24.220 --> 00:09:29.570 As Lakisha mentioned, I now work for the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency 109 00:09:29.570 --> 00:09:32.740 CISA. We're a relatively new agency. 110 00:09:32.750 --> 00:09:34.600 We're a little over two years old. 111 00:09:35.290 --> 00:09:40.900 And we were formed from what was known previously as the National Preparedness Programs Directorate 112 00:09:41.320 --> 00:09:42.980 in the Department of Homeland Security. 113 00:09:43.630 --> 00:09:49.480 Our mission is to protect the nation's critical infrastructure, whether that's from deliberate incidents 114 00:09:49.510 --> 00:09:50.800 or natural hazards. 115 00:09:51.520 --> 00:09:57.370 In my current work, we're particularly focused on delivering guidance and tools that help state, local, 116 00:09:57.370 --> 00:10:03.160 tribal and territorial partners, as well as private sector owners and operators of infrastructure 117 00:10:03.490 --> 00:10:09.490 to understand the dependency and interdependency relationships that exist among infrastructure systems 118 00:10:09.730 --> 00:10:15.700 and the consequences of disruption or failures not only on other infrastructure systems, 119 00:10:15.940 --> 00:10:21.400 but on the people, institutions, businesses and industries that rely on the services that 120 00:10:21.400 --> 00:10:22.690 infrastructure provides. 121 00:10:23.380 --> 00:10:29.140 Our work has generally focused on assessments of security and resilience from the facility 122 00:10:29.140 --> 00:10:35.050 scale up to regional infrastructure networks, and we continue to conduct those studies through our field 123 00:10:35.050 --> 00:10:40.900 personnel in support of our SLTT partners and with infrastructure owners and operators. 124 00:10:42.140 --> 00:10:47.990 Complementing our assessments work, we've been developing guidance and tools to support infrastructure, resilience, 125 00:10:47.990 --> 00:10:52.720 planning, the Infrastructure Resilience Planning Framework, or IRPF. 126 00:10:53.060 --> 00:10:58.040 It's intended to help our SLTT partners and infrastructure owners and operators 127 00:10:58.400 --> 00:11:01.210 understand infrastructure systems and priorities. 128 00:11:01.850 --> 00:11:07.670 The threats and vulnerabilities that they face in using that information, identify and 129 00:11:07.670 --> 00:11:11.940 evaluate options to mitigate risk and enhance resilience. 130 00:11:12.680 --> 00:11:18.230 An important part of that work is demonstrating that investment in infrastructure, mitigation and 131 00:11:18.230 --> 00:11:24.140 resilience can have far reaching benefits not only in reducing the frequency and direct cost of 132 00:11:24.140 --> 00:11:29.360 losses, but also in developing direct and indirect benefits day to day. 133 00:11:30.050 --> 00:11:35.960 And when infrastructure is stressed by changing conditions or affected by shocks such as occur during 134 00:11:35.960 --> 00:11:37.190 natural hazard events. 135 00:11:37.880 --> 00:11:43.670 Those benefits and costs must then be communicated to decision makers and other stakeholders in 136 00:11:43.670 --> 00:11:45.760 compelling ways to stimulate action. 137 00:11:46.690 --> 00:11:52.540 The PDX Runway Seismic Upgrade Mitigation Saves study demonstrates one 138 00:11:52.540 --> 00:11:58.420 way to make such a compelling argument for the value that mitigation investment can 139 00:11:58.420 --> 00:12:04.330 provide. Some of our work, consists, involves building up a cadre of subject matter 140 00:12:04.330 --> 00:12:10.330 experts to help us understand the barriers that limit infrastructure investment and mitigation in the 141 00:12:10.330 --> 00:12:16.270 near term, as well as understanding the trends that will influence infrastructure investment over the long term. 142 00:12:16.570 --> 00:12:22.570 Twenty five years or more into the future, this group called the Resilient Infrastructure Planning and 143 00:12:22.570 --> 00:12:28.510 Development Working Group, was formed under the auspices of the Critical Infrastructure Partnership Advisory 144 00:12:28.510 --> 00:12:34.180 Committee, or CIPAC authorities, and is a working group under the SLTT Government 145 00:12:34.180 --> 00:12:35.310 Coordinating Committee. 146 00:12:36.460 --> 00:12:38.320 The working group invited Dr. 147 00:12:38.320 --> 00:12:43.870 Porter recently to give a presentation on the Mitigation Save study at the last quarterly meeting. 148 00:12:45.520 --> 00:12:51.370 Additionally, I co-chair the National Mitigation Investment Strategy, an initiative by the Mitigation Framework 149 00:12:51.370 --> 00:12:56.860 Leadership Group, an interagency effort to encourage increased investment in mitigation 150 00:12:57.400 --> 00:13:02.860 studies like the PDX runway mitigation saves, bolster the argument for the 151 00:13:02.860 --> 00:13:07.600 value of mitigation investment and demonstrate ways to encourage mitigation. 152 00:13:08.890 --> 00:13:14.740 The new administration has stated its priorities on infrastructure investment, addressing the challenges 153 00:13:14.740 --> 00:13:17.920 posed by climate change and addressing social equity. 154 00:13:18.830 --> 00:13:24.410 All of the agencies that make up the federal family are currently working on their plans for how they 155 00:13:24.410 --> 00:13:30.200 support these priorities through their programs and how they will support legislation that might be 156 00:13:30.200 --> 00:13:35.780 passed to address these challenges again studies such as this showed the 157 00:13:36.890 --> 00:13:42.590 value of mitigation and resilience investments, and that they have broad benefits not only 158 00:13:42.590 --> 00:13:48.320 to the facilities or systems where the investments were made, but that those benefits are 159 00:13:48.320 --> 00:13:53.060 shared broadly by local and regional entities and society at large. 160 00:13:54.030 --> 00:13:59.190 And so with that, I'm going to stop and turn the floor over to Dr. 161 00:13:59.190 --> 00:14:02.620 Keith Porter to talk about the mitigation saves study. 162 00:14:02.700 --> 00:14:07.210 I'm sorry, I'm going to turn it over to Dan first of this. 163 00:14:07.410 --> 00:14:08.100 Misread my notes. 164 00:14:08.220 --> 00:14:09.900 Dan, the floor is yours. 165 00:14:15.040 --> 00:14:19.720 Thanks very much, I know Keith and I, we're ready to do a switch real fast if we had to. 166 00:14:19.750 --> 00:14:20.550 So it's all good. 167 00:14:21.490 --> 00:14:23.990 I thought I'd just address a couple of quick questions. 168 00:14:24.280 --> 00:14:26.110 Thank you for the nice introduction. 169 00:14:26.110 --> 00:14:30.580 And I'm honored to be here amongst such esteemed researchers and 170 00:14:32.170 --> 00:14:34.420 public servants who have really helped us out here. 171 00:14:35.710 --> 00:14:41.440 Talk a little bit about why Portland International Airport or the Port of Portland undertook this 172 00:14:41.620 --> 00:14:47.110 study. Over the past several years, we've made a lot of progress in an all hazards 173 00:14:47.110 --> 00:14:54.670 resilience program where we're addressing climate change, manmade 174 00:14:54.670 --> 00:15:01.150 acts in addition to earthquake, seismic resilience and really 175 00:15:01.150 --> 00:15:06.880 the centerpiece of our holistic and programmatic approach, both to infrastructure resilience 176 00:15:07.270 --> 00:15:13.120 and to how we respond to events is the seismic risk of a Cascadia subduction 177 00:15:13.120 --> 00:15:17.470 zone event off the coast of Oregon or Washington. 178 00:15:18.220 --> 00:15:24.160 And we've made significant investments in the physical concept and design of a resilient 179 00:15:24.160 --> 00:15:25.110 run- runway. 180 00:15:25.420 --> 00:15:31.300 But we really lacked the analysis to clearly describe and quantify the benefits to either the 181 00:15:31.300 --> 00:15:33.360 region, the state or the nation. 182 00:15:34.330 --> 00:15:39.280 Some of our investments already in the runway itself include site 183 00:15:39.280 --> 00:15:44.680 characterization, a needs definition and a runway segment selection, 184 00:15:45.670 --> 00:15:51.310 both sponsoring and partnering with Oregon State University and DKK liquefaction testing 185 00:15:51.790 --> 00:15:57.580 and working with the Geotech engineering firm to complete a 30 percent design of a resilient runway section. 186 00:15:58.660 --> 00:16:04.060 However, we really needed to clearly articulate the opportunity and define the relative 187 00:16:04.060 --> 00:16:09.730 importance of the resilient runway with other resilient priorities within the region of the state. 188 00:16:10.000 --> 00:16:16.000 And so that's why we approached the experts at the National Institute of Building Sciences to help us out to frame, 189 00:16:16.210 --> 00:16:21.610 analyze and describe the benefits of the investment in an earthquake resilient runway and Portland. 190 00:16:22.630 --> 00:16:28.570 In addition to that, we're also doing a study to understand the local equity 191 00:16:29.620 --> 00:16:35.290 aspects and analysis of what the resilient runway means for communities here in Portland itself. 192 00:16:36.880 --> 00:16:42.670 How this fits into kind of our broader mitigation decision making process for the 193 00:16:42.670 --> 00:16:48.370 port, as mentioned by Lakisha early on, we're we're what's called a 194 00:16:48.370 --> 00:16:49.300 consolidated port. 195 00:16:49.300 --> 00:16:54.400 We both have marine terminals for ocean going, sea traffic and also 196 00:16:54.580 --> 00:17:00.320 airports. And our port program is really built around three aspects. 197 00:17:01.000 --> 00:17:07.120 The first is the immediate life, safety and getting assistance 198 00:17:07.120 --> 00:17:11.030 into the region, which the PDX runway supports. 199 00:17:11.830 --> 00:17:17.590 The second is to open and have available cargo capacity for marine 200 00:17:17.590 --> 00:17:23.560 traffic to bring in large amounts of supplies and fuel and things of that nature to help 201 00:17:23.560 --> 00:17:24.610 the area rebuild. 202 00:17:25.000 --> 00:17:30.970 And third is to have the ability to have business reconstitute and people to travel, 203 00:17:30.970 --> 00:17:36.940 which I think is the lesson we've all learned after seeing the hurricane Katrina in New Orleans when 204 00:17:36.940 --> 00:17:42.790 there was inadequate infrastructure after the event had passed, people couldn't stay 205 00:17:42.790 --> 00:17:45.590 there to work and have a living. 206 00:17:45.940 --> 00:17:51.790 So we have to think about the long term economic development as well, I should say recovery. 207 00:17:52.060 --> 00:17:55.740 And obviously PDX the runway plays a big part in that as well. 208 00:17:57.130 --> 00:18:02.830 So we've partnered with a number of federal and state agencies, including FEMA and the 209 00:18:02.830 --> 00:18:08.800 Department of Defense, as well as the Oregon Emergency Management Department, to really understand 210 00:18:08.800 --> 00:18:11.940 the critical operation needed and runway capability. 211 00:18:12.400 --> 00:18:17.830 So PDX has two primary runways they're, parallel runways. 212 00:18:17.830 --> 00:18:20.260 They're both over eleven thousand feet long. 213 00:18:20.890 --> 00:18:25.810 But the only part of the runway we're trying to save is about six thousand feet of one of the runways. 214 00:18:26.500 --> 00:18:32.260 So it can be used immediately after an event that will allow what's called the Aviation 215 00:18:32.260 --> 00:18:33.940 Industry Group three aircraft. 216 00:18:34.240 --> 00:18:37.750 Think about a seven thirty seven, that type of operation. 217 00:18:38.020 --> 00:18:43.990 But it also dovetails nicely with military airlift needs for immediate relief and 218 00:18:43.990 --> 00:18:48.630 supplies and personnel to come in to reconstitute essential services. 219 00:18:49.270 --> 00:18:54.790 So having an independent benefit cost analysis analysis 220 00:18:55.180 --> 00:19:00.820 will allow us to couple this work with the design work to make a value proposition to our local, 221 00:19:00.820 --> 00:19:04.840 regional, state and federal leaders on making an investment decision. 222 00:19:05.050 --> 00:19:10.750 And where this fits in, I think one of the challenge of disaster regional disaster planning in the 223 00:19:10.750 --> 00:19:13.870 nation is that you have a lot of players. 224 00:19:14.110 --> 00:19:19.780 They all have high priorities and they're all responsible for different small segments 225 00:19:20.020 --> 00:19:21.460 of the overall system. 226 00:19:21.790 --> 00:19:22.960 And so it's difficult. 227 00:19:22.960 --> 00:19:25.900 There's a lot of good ideas out there, but there's not a lot of money. 228 00:19:26.380 --> 00:19:31.900 And so I think taking it, stepping back and trying to take a holistic view of what the region needs 229 00:19:32.320 --> 00:19:35.200 to support, it is a positive thing. 230 00:19:35.200 --> 00:19:41.050 But we can't do that without some kind of analysis as opposed to one agency saying we think 231 00:19:41.050 --> 00:19:44.710 this is the most important project to do so. 232 00:19:44.740 --> 00:19:48.610 This is a good tool for us to elevate that conversation. 233 00:19:49.240 --> 00:19:55.150 Obviously, I'm not making a decision on what the investments are, but I think as public servants, we feel like 234 00:19:55.150 --> 00:20:00.130 it's our duty to tee up the right conversations for our leaders to make those decisions. 235 00:20:03.330 --> 00:20:04.280 Stephen, back to you. 236 00:20:05.740 --> 00:20:07.510 Great, Dan, thank you very much. 237 00:20:08.440 --> 00:20:14.350 I'm going to now turn the floor over to Keith Porter, who asLakisha mentioned, led 238 00:20:14.350 --> 00:20:17.770 the mitigation saves study Keith, the floor is yours. 239 00:20:43.090 --> 00:20:43.660 Thanks, Steve. 240 00:20:44.710 --> 00:20:50.500 OK, so I'm going to talk about how this 241 00:20:51.070 --> 00:20:54.670 resilient runway saves fifty dollars per dollar spent. 242 00:20:54.670 --> 00:21:00.220 I'm going to explain what that fifty to one number means, how we 243 00:21:00.220 --> 00:21:06.040 arrived at it, how it how the mitigation benefits 244 00:21:06.040 --> 00:21:09.430 the entire region, the state and indeed the nation. 245 00:21:11.830 --> 00:21:17.680 I was the principal investigator on the study, but the study involved a big team 246 00:21:17.680 --> 00:21:20.710 under JQ's project management. 247 00:21:21.520 --> 00:21:26.860 There were also researchers from the George Washington University, the University of Southern California, 248 00:21:27.550 --> 00:21:33.490 and we had peer review from CISA, from 249 00:21:33.490 --> 00:21:39.100 the Oregon Office of Emergency Management, from the University of Colorado and the state of 250 00:21:39.100 --> 00:21:40.380 Oregon. It was a big team. 251 00:21:40.720 --> 00:21:46.660 I want to cut to the bottom line first to tell you what you should be focusing on. 252 00:21:46.990 --> 00:21:52.600 First of all, large earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone are inevitable. 253 00:21:52.810 --> 00:21:58.600 The benefits that we're talking about here are a question of when the the 254 00:21:58.600 --> 00:22:03.880 Port of Portland experiences these benefits, not if they will experience the benefits. 255 00:22:04.780 --> 00:22:10.690 The the primary hazard here is the magnitude eight 256 00:22:10.690 --> 00:22:14.770 point seven to nine point three earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone. 257 00:22:14.770 --> 00:22:21.160 That's the place where the Juan de Fuca plate subducts underneath 258 00:22:21.160 --> 00:22:26.680 the North American plate and locks up and occasionally ruptures with large 259 00:22:26.690 --> 00:22:31.000 earthquakes and strong shaking that could affect the entire region. 260 00:22:32.350 --> 00:22:38.050 The resilient runway at PDX will save over fifty 261 00:22:38.050 --> 00:22:41.610 dollars per dollar spent on mitigation. 262 00:22:41.620 --> 00:22:47.350 The cost is something over 140 million dollars, but we've estimated the benefit at exceeding 263 00:22:47.350 --> 00:22:49.060 seven billion dollars. 264 00:22:49.060 --> 00:22:51.640 In present value terms, those are apples to apples. 265 00:22:52.270 --> 00:22:57.550 The leading contributors to those benefits are that the resilient runway will help to save lives 266 00:22:58.330 --> 00:23:02.170 by about by allowing people to be 267 00:23:03.610 --> 00:23:09.610 evacuated, injured people to be evacuated and for medical personnel and resources to 268 00:23:09.610 --> 00:23:10.840 be brought in. 269 00:23:11.110 --> 00:23:16.480 The airport will also allow people to quickly return to their homes and their 270 00:23:16.480 --> 00:23:22.270 workplaces because experts from outside the region will be able to arrive in Portland and to 271 00:23:22.270 --> 00:23:28.060 help assess the safety of buildings that have scary looking damage, but that are actually 272 00:23:28.660 --> 00:23:29.440 structurally safe. 273 00:23:29.440 --> 00:23:35.410 And we're talking about potentially hundreds of thousands of safe buildings that would be reoccupied 274 00:23:35.410 --> 00:23:38.910 faster if building safety evaluators could arrive quickly. 275 00:23:39.310 --> 00:23:44.980 Also, the a functioning airport will avoid one point two billion 276 00:23:44.980 --> 00:23:50.650 dollars in business interruption from businesses that rely one way or 277 00:23:50.650 --> 00:23:52.000 another on the airport. 278 00:23:52.960 --> 00:23:58.360 The resilient runway will reduce repair costs and will provide will ensure 279 00:23:59.050 --> 00:24:00.150 national defense. 280 00:24:00.820 --> 00:24:06.520 There's a number of benefit categories that also add to the VCR, but we haven't quantified here, 281 00:24:06.760 --> 00:24:11.020 including equity, jobs, taxes, response and recovery costs and so on. 282 00:24:12.490 --> 00:24:18.730 The 50 to one benefit cost ratio is mostly due to two contributors 283 00:24:19.040 --> 00:24:24.580 to benefits to new contributors that have not been evaluated before. 284 00:24:25.900 --> 00:24:31.810 These are a couple of innovations that NIBS brought that matter to making to the port, being able 285 00:24:31.810 --> 00:24:35.890 to make its business case to spend this mitigation money. 286 00:24:35.890 --> 00:24:38.670 Number one, the building re occupancy problem. 287 00:24:39.460 --> 00:24:44.770 There are plenty of existing analytical tools that estimate the number of 288 00:24:45.190 --> 00:24:50.770 buildings that will need to be evaluated, tagged those red, yellow and green tags one sees 289 00:24:50.770 --> 00:24:53.800 after earthquakes and other natural disasters. 290 00:24:53.800 --> 00:24:59.860 But those tools don't evaluate what we needed to evaluate here. 291 00:24:59.860 --> 00:25:05.440 They don't tell us how many landslides will occur hindering access 292 00:25:05.650 --> 00:25:11.440 and their repair time, and they don't tell us how long it will take evaluators to travel to Portland 293 00:25:11.560 --> 00:25:13.120 and do the safety evaluations. 294 00:25:13.120 --> 00:25:18.760 We added that also we added tools for medical evacuation. 295 00:25:18.760 --> 00:25:22.090 Existing tools estimate deaths and injuries in big earthquakes. 296 00:25:22.330 --> 00:25:27.760 We added the ability to estimate how many injuries there would be in excess of 297 00:25:28.030 --> 00:25:33.490 ICU and emergency department beds and the number of lives saved by 298 00:25:33.760 --> 00:25:37.970 medevac. So let me recap the problem statement. 299 00:25:38.020 --> 00:25:42.320 The question that the port came to NIBS with. 300 00:25:42.320 --> 00:25:42.540 They asked. 301 00:25:43.560 --> 00:25:48.960 They told us it's going to cost us perhaps north of 140 million dollars to remediate 302 00:25:48.960 --> 00:25:52.410 liquefaction at PDX, a south runway. 303 00:25:52.630 --> 00:25:55.800 But what are the benefits in in dollar terms? 304 00:25:55.830 --> 00:25:58.320 That was the question that we were asked. 305 00:25:58.320 --> 00:26:04.140 And that question is particularly poignant for Portland because of the geographic setting. 306 00:26:04.140 --> 00:26:10.140 This is a place at the north end of the Willamette Valley that is accessible by a number of 307 00:26:10.710 --> 00:26:16.650 mountainous highway routes, all of which in the northeast and northwest. 308 00:26:16.920 --> 00:26:22.830 Long rainy season are particularly subject to earthquake induced landslides like you're seeing here. 309 00:26:22.830 --> 00:26:28.170 There are also a number of older bridges along those highway routes that can collapse and hinder access 310 00:26:28.890 --> 00:26:30.090 to the Willamette Valley. 311 00:26:30.840 --> 00:26:32.070 That makes a big difference. 312 00:26:32.880 --> 00:26:38.850 Now, before I get into the details, let me give you a sort of big picture overview of what 313 00:26:38.850 --> 00:26:45.660 is a benefit cost analysis and what is a benefit cost ratio when 314 00:26:45.660 --> 00:26:50.830 it comes to mitigating a future disaster. 315 00:26:52.530 --> 00:26:58.260 We like to calculate the value of that mitigation effort in terms of a 316 00:26:58.260 --> 00:27:01.280 ratio of the the benefits to the cost. 317 00:27:01.290 --> 00:27:02.730 That's the benefit cost ratio. 318 00:27:02.940 --> 00:27:08.610 If the benefits are higher than the costs and the the numerator there is higher than the 319 00:27:08.610 --> 00:27:12.060 denominator and the better cost ratio is greater than one. 320 00:27:12.060 --> 00:27:16.770 Any BCR greater than one indicates a desirable investment. 321 00:27:17.130 --> 00:27:20.250 And the higher that number, the more desirable the investment. 322 00:27:20.850 --> 00:27:26.220 Lakisha told us about the previous natural hazard mitigation saves studies. 323 00:27:26.460 --> 00:27:32.070 And you can see a table from that study that shows a bunch of different benefit cost ratios for a bunch of different 324 00:27:32.070 --> 00:27:35.600 approaches to natural hazard mitigation and a bunch of different perils. 325 00:27:35.760 --> 00:27:41.730 Basically, they all tell us the difference between future loss without the mitigation and future 326 00:27:41.730 --> 00:27:47.430 loss with the mitigation, that quantity divided by the cost, which is in the mitigation capital 327 00:27:47.430 --> 00:27:49.740 cost, plus any added maintenance costs. 328 00:27:51.250 --> 00:27:56.170 So how does a benefit cost analysis work when you're talking about future disasters, 329 00:27:57.400 --> 00:28:00.980 all these studies, they have the same general contours. 330 00:28:01.000 --> 00:28:06.820 You start by defining the assets at risk, in this case, the runway and the 331 00:28:06.820 --> 00:28:11.760 buildings that are in the Willamette Valley and the people that are in those buildings and so on. 332 00:28:11.860 --> 00:28:17.500 Then you characterize the environmental hazard, what the environment can do to those assets in this 333 00:28:17.500 --> 00:28:23.010 case, what earthquakes can do to the runway and to the buildings and to the roads and so on. 334 00:28:23.290 --> 00:28:28.540 And you might characterize those that hazard with maps of shaking like I'm showing you here. 335 00:28:29.260 --> 00:28:34.240 Then you characterize the vulnerability of each of those assets to that shaking. 336 00:28:34.840 --> 00:28:40.660 And that's a probabilistic relationship where there's a certain level of shaking, there's a certain probability of a 337 00:28:40.660 --> 00:28:42.000 certain kind of damage. 338 00:28:42.610 --> 00:28:47.950 And then you characterize the damage from each of those from from that earthquake. 339 00:28:48.630 --> 00:28:51.100 The damage is expressed in physical terms. 340 00:28:51.370 --> 00:28:54.940 How much of the runway needs to be repaired, how many buildings have collapsed. 341 00:28:55.270 --> 00:29:01.090 And then you characterize the loss that results from that damage losses generally 342 00:29:01.390 --> 00:29:03.910 quantified in terms of dollars, deaths and downtime. 343 00:29:03.910 --> 00:29:09.660 That is to say, the repair cost, the life safety impacts, loss of functionality and so on. 344 00:29:10.720 --> 00:29:12.600 There's a lot of uncertainties in this process. 345 00:29:12.610 --> 00:29:18.550 So you have to iterate to account for all the probabilities and to calculate a present value of 346 00:29:18.550 --> 00:29:19.510 the future losses. 347 00:29:20.420 --> 00:29:26.060 The benefit is then the present value of future losses under current conditions, without the resilient runway 348 00:29:26.240 --> 00:29:32.210 and the present value of the future losses, if we do do the runway, mitigation and a benefit cost ratio 349 00:29:32.210 --> 00:29:38.060 is just the sum of the benefits from all the different benefit categories that we can consider divided by the 350 00:29:38.060 --> 00:29:42.760 cost. Now, there are a lot of benefit categories that we can consider. 351 00:29:42.770 --> 00:29:46.880 They all fall under the heading of dollars deaths and downtime, which for the most part. 352 00:29:47.240 --> 00:29:52.880 But there are I mean, here's here's a dozen different benefit categories and only a few of them are going to 353 00:29:52.880 --> 00:29:55.790 contribute the bulk of the the benefit. 354 00:29:55.830 --> 00:30:01.790 So we have to focus on the few that are going to contribute the bulk of the benefits in order to get a benefit 355 00:30:01.790 --> 00:30:04.590 cost ratio in a reasonable amount of time. 356 00:30:05.900 --> 00:30:11.600 So let's talk about how we applied this process to the resilient runway at PDX. 357 00:30:12.890 --> 00:30:18.680 First of all, we characterized a hundred different simulations of five 358 00:30:18.680 --> 00:30:21.170 earthquakes that could affect Portland. 359 00:30:22.460 --> 00:30:28.400 And those simulations stand in for the millions of possible earthquakes that could occur. 360 00:30:28.400 --> 00:30:34.340 And they range from the small, relatively small earthquake on the left to the relatively large earthquake on the right. 361 00:30:34.370 --> 00:30:35.510 They're all very large. 362 00:30:35.510 --> 00:30:41.270 The smallest of these is a magnitude eight point seven earthquake and the largest of these is of magnitude nine 363 00:30:41.270 --> 00:30:42.410 point three earthquake. 364 00:30:44.330 --> 00:30:50.030 We then in order to estimate the benefit of the safety benefit, the medevac 365 00:30:50.030 --> 00:30:55.910 benefit, we had to estimate the building damage to the damage to all the buildings in the Willamette 366 00:30:55.910 --> 00:31:01.610 Valley or at least in the study region, then the injuries to the people in those buildings. 367 00:31:01.940 --> 00:31:07.220 Then we had to subtract the number of injuries from the number of 368 00:31:07.940 --> 00:31:09.550 ICU and ED beds. 369 00:31:09.560 --> 00:31:15.030 Those are the number of people who could die if they do not receive medical evacuation. 370 00:31:15.530 --> 00:31:21.440 We assume that only some of those people can actually are actually saved because it takes 371 00:31:21.440 --> 00:31:27.380 time to get them to the airport and get them to a hospital in 372 00:31:27.380 --> 00:31:28.250 some other place. 373 00:31:28.520 --> 00:31:34.310 And then we can multiply those lives saved by the acceptable cost to avoid a statistical 374 00:31:35.240 --> 00:31:39.980 death, the value of a statistical life that's encoded in federal regulations. 375 00:31:42.870 --> 00:31:48.510 In this case, we found that the safety benefit, considering the 376 00:31:48.510 --> 00:31:54.330 local ICU and ED resources, contributes three dollars of savings for 377 00:31:54.330 --> 00:31:56.950 every dollar spent on the resilient runway. 378 00:31:56.970 --> 00:31:59.220 That's three to one out of the 50 to one. 379 00:31:59.250 --> 00:32:05.250 These numbers add up and that comes about because a large earthquake could could injure tens of thousands of people 380 00:32:06.300 --> 00:32:11.870 with thousands of them requiring ICU or ED care or they will die. 381 00:32:12.420 --> 00:32:18.420 But there are only three hundred and sixty vacant ICU or ED beds on average in the Willamette Valley at any 382 00:32:18.420 --> 00:32:18.990 one time. 383 00:32:20.430 --> 00:32:21.420 We use U.S. 384 00:32:21.420 --> 00:32:26.750 Department of Transportation values of statistical lives and life threatening injuries. 385 00:32:26.760 --> 00:32:32.730 The difference between the two is the acceptable cost to save one of these, save one of 386 00:32:32.760 --> 00:32:35.160 these lives through medical evacuation. 387 00:32:36.270 --> 00:32:40.890 The second big benefit category that I want to focus on here is building re occupancy. 388 00:32:41.700 --> 00:32:47.520 In order to calculate the benefit of building the occupancy, we had to estimate the number of 389 00:32:47.520 --> 00:32:51.650 landslides over all of the highway routes into the Willamette Valley. 390 00:32:51.960 --> 00:32:57.840 We had to estimate the bridge damage and we have to estimate the repair time that was the that. 391 00:32:57.840 --> 00:33:03.600 And because that affects how long it would take people to drive into the Willamette Valley to help to 392 00:33:03.600 --> 00:33:05.920 do the building safety evaluations. 393 00:33:06.180 --> 00:33:11.640 The longer it takes to drive in, the more valuable it is to have a runway that is working 394 00:33:12.180 --> 00:33:14.890 because people can fly and instead of driving it. 395 00:33:15.330 --> 00:33:21.270 So once we had calculated the time it took for people, for building safety evaluators to drive into the 396 00:33:21.270 --> 00:33:27.120 Willamette Valley, then we had to estimate the number of buildings damaged, the number of 397 00:33:27.120 --> 00:33:31.740 buildings that would have to have these red, yellow and green tags and building safety evaluation. 398 00:33:31.950 --> 00:33:37.230 The time it would take the experts to arrive to do those evaluations, the time it would take them to 399 00:33:37.860 --> 00:33:39.600 to actually do the evaluations. 400 00:33:39.900 --> 00:33:45.600 And all of that is multiplied by the by the cost of being displaced from 401 00:33:45.600 --> 00:33:47.760 your home or your business. 402 00:33:49.930 --> 00:33:53.370 What we found was this was an enormous benefit category. 403 00:33:53.700 --> 00:33:58.590 Building re occupancy contributes 40 out of the 50 dollars saved here. 404 00:33:58.590 --> 00:33:59.430 The region has. 405 00:33:59.430 --> 00:34:04.050 And the reason is that the region has a lot of older, vulnerable buildings. 406 00:34:04.830 --> 00:34:10.590 A Cascadia subduction zone earthquake could damage up to 850000 of them at a two point nine 407 00:34:10.590 --> 00:34:16.410 million. These are all buildings that would require a building safety evaluation, but most of 408 00:34:16.410 --> 00:34:19.370 those, over 600000 could be safely reoccupied. 409 00:34:19.380 --> 00:34:25.530 They've got scary looking damage, but not such that it causes 410 00:34:25.530 --> 00:34:27.540 a collapse risk and aftershocks. 411 00:34:28.830 --> 00:34:34.110 So there's 600 there's 800000 of these tags that have to put up, 412 00:34:34.680 --> 00:34:35.370 have to be put up. 413 00:34:35.370 --> 00:34:41.190 But the Portland Metro Metro Statistical Area only has one hundred and eighty people who are qualified to do this. 414 00:34:41.580 --> 00:34:46.410 So the rest of the volunteers would have to come from outside the Willamette Valley. 415 00:34:46.680 --> 00:34:52.560 The United States has almost 11000 certified evaluators, but they have to be able to get there from outside the 416 00:34:52.560 --> 00:34:57.570 region, either by air or by highway, mountainous highway. 417 00:35:00.300 --> 00:35:04.030 Another large benefit category was business interruption. 418 00:35:04.500 --> 00:35:10.260 That's the we had to estimate the economic activity that depends on PDX 419 00:35:10.260 --> 00:35:11.610 either upstream or downstream. 420 00:35:11.610 --> 00:35:17.250 In the economy, business interruption contributes nine dollars out of the fifty 421 00:35:17.250 --> 00:35:19.860 dollars saved for every dollar spent. 422 00:35:19.860 --> 00:35:25.530 And that's businesses that are on the airport or that rely on the airport one way or 423 00:35:25.770 --> 00:35:30.750 another. Interestingly, property repair benefits were not a very big 424 00:35:31.290 --> 00:35:33.390 contributor to the benefit cost ratio. 425 00:35:34.470 --> 00:35:39.990 In order to estimate property repair benefits, we estimated runway repair costs with and without soil 426 00:35:39.990 --> 00:35:45.780 mitigation and calculate those benefits overall, the outcomes and their 427 00:35:45.780 --> 00:35:47.100 probabilities and so on. 428 00:35:47.340 --> 00:35:53.310 And that only contributes three cents per dollar spent in avoided 429 00:35:53.310 --> 00:35:54.270 future losses. 430 00:35:54.560 --> 00:36:00.120 So the overall benefit cost ratio that we calculate here is shown in this pie chart and I've given you those 431 00:36:00.120 --> 00:36:05.970 categories already tagging that is the building safety evaluation saves five point seven 432 00:36:05.970 --> 00:36:06.920 billion dollars. 433 00:36:07.080 --> 00:36:09.390 That's three quarters of the benefits. 434 00:36:09.690 --> 00:36:12.720 Business interruption contributes one point two billion dollars. 435 00:36:12.840 --> 00:36:16.110 That's about one sixth medical evacuation. 436 00:36:16.110 --> 00:36:21.510 The health and medical benefits are about a half a billion dollars and the runway repairs are about four million 437 00:36:21.510 --> 00:36:25.950 dollars. So to conclude, first of all, I want to leave you four conclusions. 438 00:36:25.980 --> 00:36:31.950 The first is that if data one is a lower bound, as high as that number sounds, it's a lower bound because it 439 00:36:32.190 --> 00:36:34.260 omits important benefit categories. 440 00:36:34.650 --> 00:36:37.140 Those benefit categories are listed here in bullets. 441 00:36:37.380 --> 00:36:41.010 First of all, disasters disproportionately harm disadvantaged people. 442 00:36:41.250 --> 00:36:42.980 Mitigation reduces that harm. 443 00:36:43.230 --> 00:36:44.280 But we haven't quantified it. 444 00:36:44.280 --> 00:36:45.930 We haven't turned it into dollar terms. 445 00:36:46.710 --> 00:36:48.000 Earthquakes isolate us. 446 00:36:48.300 --> 00:36:53.880 They stress us out, especially in the Willamette Valley, where you're physically 447 00:36:53.880 --> 00:36:56.370 isolated from the rest of the country. 448 00:36:56.370 --> 00:37:02.310 In the rest of the world, the an earthquake has enormous impacts on 449 00:37:02.310 --> 00:37:05.040 jobs. It has impacts on tax revenues. 450 00:37:05.310 --> 00:37:11.040 It produces enormous response and recovery costs, and it produces environmental harms, none of which are 451 00:37:11.040 --> 00:37:13.160 quantified in that 50 to one number. 452 00:37:13.170 --> 00:37:17.280 So if we were able to quantify those benefits, the 50 would go up. 453 00:37:18.880 --> 00:37:24.850 Second conclusion, PDX needed some innovation to capture the big contributors 454 00:37:25.120 --> 00:37:26.620 to the benefit cost ratio. 455 00:37:26.800 --> 00:37:32.320 The two that I mentioned before were medevac and building reoccupancy. 456 00:37:33.130 --> 00:37:38.080 So you can't in many cases, you can't simply use the available tools. 457 00:37:38.080 --> 00:37:43.720 The available tools like houses and the FEMA benefit cost analysis tool 458 00:37:43.930 --> 00:37:46.660 are very useful, very powerful, but they don't cover everything. 459 00:37:47.080 --> 00:37:52.990 These are some of the other resilience options that the existing tools do not 460 00:37:52.990 --> 00:37:58.960 cover. Climate adaptation, design of critical infrastructure with lifecycle cost analysis, 461 00:37:58.960 --> 00:38:04.780 business continuity planning, high value, dangerous commercial buildings building back better and the market 462 00:38:04.780 --> 00:38:05.650 value of resilience. 463 00:38:05.660 --> 00:38:11.230 These are all areas in which the National Institute of Building Sciences can innovate and can help the decision 464 00:38:11.230 --> 00:38:17.170 makers make make the business case for mitigation measures that 465 00:38:17.170 --> 00:38:20.860 we believe are highly cost effective but need to quantify. 466 00:38:21.460 --> 00:38:27.190 The third conclusion is that fixing a non non redundant transportation link like the 467 00:38:27.820 --> 00:38:31.570 PDX runway is among our most cost effective strategies. 468 00:38:31.570 --> 00:38:33.970 50 to one may sound like a very high number. 469 00:38:33.980 --> 00:38:39.760 It is a high number, but it's in there with several other studies have several other high 470 00:38:39.760 --> 00:38:45.760 value mitigation options that are available to us, such as mandatory strapping of water heaters 471 00:38:45.760 --> 00:38:46.470 in our homes. 472 00:38:46.480 --> 00:38:50.500 That saves over 50 to one in 30 California counties. 473 00:38:50.770 --> 00:38:55.600 Under grounding, a Minnesota transmission line was found to save 40 to one 474 00:38:56.440 --> 00:39:02.080 doing flood protection at a North Carolina water treatment plant was found to save 30 to one. 475 00:39:02.860 --> 00:39:08.680 And I can cite a few other examples of similarly high benefit cost ratios. 476 00:39:08.680 --> 00:39:14.140 And the last conclusion that I want to leave you with is that the PDX Resilient runway helps 477 00:39:14.140 --> 00:39:18.910 everyone. It helps everyone in the region through medevacked. 478 00:39:18.910 --> 00:39:23.950 Any one of us could be among the injured who need to be medically evacuated. 479 00:39:24.690 --> 00:39:30.100 It helps everyone whose building might be damaged and might need fast 480 00:39:30.580 --> 00:39:31.710 safety evaluation. 481 00:39:31.720 --> 00:39:37.660 Anyone can live in one of those damaged buildings and will be worried about being able to get 482 00:39:37.660 --> 00:39:38.530 back into their building. 483 00:39:38.560 --> 00:39:39.520 To the building is tagged. 484 00:39:40.780 --> 00:39:46.720 The PDX Resilient Runway will provide a more stable regional economy and provide connection to the outside world. 485 00:39:46.720 --> 00:39:51.270 As a matter of fact, the benefits extend to everyone in the United States because the economy is interconnected. 486 00:39:51.790 --> 00:39:56.920 There is no state is an island, let alone a region like Portland. 487 00:39:57.280 --> 00:40:02.110 So a resilient runway produces a stable, interconnected national economy. 488 00:40:02.110 --> 00:40:04.660 It produces a stable national tax base. 489 00:40:04.900 --> 00:40:10.300 It lowers the national response and recovery costs and provides the nation with a sense of safety. 490 00:40:11.260 --> 00:40:16.930 And with that, I will conclude anyone who wants a copy of this deck can find it at this URL. 491 00:40:16.930 --> 00:40:22.630 And feel free to reach out to me at these contact 492 00:40:22.630 --> 00:40:23.080 points. 493 00:40:26.700 --> 00:40:27.470 Thank you, Keith. 494 00:40:27.990 --> 00:40:29.110 Great presentation. 495 00:40:29.700 --> 00:40:35.400 I'm going to turn it over now to our final speaker JQ Yuan, to 496 00:40:36.090 --> 00:40:39.450 give some final remarks on the on what's next. 497 00:40:39.670 --> 00:40:41.220 JQ, the floor is yours. 498 00:40:44.820 --> 00:40:45.540 Thank you, Steve. 499 00:40:46.770 --> 00:40:47.400 Hello, everyone. 500 00:40:47.670 --> 00:40:53.440 So as you have heard from other speakers from today, that is a 501 00:40:53.550 --> 00:40:59.280 transportation study is a continuation also an important part for our natural 502 00:40:59.280 --> 00:41:01.340 hazard study series. 503 00:41:02.010 --> 00:41:06.120 And now here, I would like to share with you what is next. 504 00:41:07.470 --> 00:41:13.230 I will expand the top debate, which not only includes this case 505 00:41:13.230 --> 00:41:19.110 study, but also in general to talk about our built environment, including the 506 00:41:19.110 --> 00:41:20.830 buildings and the infrastructure. 507 00:41:21.810 --> 00:41:27.630 So these are the conversations are happening within NIBS, also at the Hazard 508 00:41:27.630 --> 00:41:33.360 Mitigation Council and his Committee on Finance, Insurance and Real Estate, also through the city 509 00:41:33.360 --> 00:41:34.350 council at an. 510 00:41:37.290 --> 00:41:42.780 So for disaster mitigation to help to make the hazardous event 511 00:41:43.110 --> 00:41:48.780 short lived and the more manageable mitigation saves lives and preserves 512 00:41:48.780 --> 00:41:54.420 homes, businesses, government facilities, utilities and transportation infrastructure, it 513 00:41:54.420 --> 00:42:00.380 reduces the damage, helps local economies spring back faster and lower the 514 00:42:00.390 --> 00:42:01.260 recovery cost. 515 00:42:02.800 --> 00:42:08.590 As has been shown by Keith in our National Medical and Safety Study, we look very 516 00:42:08.590 --> 00:42:13.660 broadly on the mitigation measures that people can take, which which 517 00:42:15.280 --> 00:42:21.250 spreads from adopting the current building code, which saves 11 dollars per dollar invested. 518 00:42:22.090 --> 00:42:27.640 When you look at the federal investment, that saves six to one. 519 00:42:29.710 --> 00:42:34.900 When you look at the retrofit for the private sector, billions that saves four dollars per dollar 520 00:42:35.590 --> 00:42:37.450 invested. 521 00:42:37.450 --> 00:42:41.370 When you have exceeding the exceed the minimum code requirement. 522 00:42:41.680 --> 00:42:43.720 We have a benefit cost ratio of four to one. 523 00:42:44.440 --> 00:42:47.060 So please note, all of this is of the national average. 524 00:42:47.650 --> 00:42:50.320 You can find more details in our detailed report. 525 00:42:50.620 --> 00:42:51.690 I have length here. 526 00:42:53.240 --> 00:42:59.070 Here today we're adding the exciting 50 to one for the airport runway case study. 527 00:42:59.740 --> 00:43:04.890 So I think the conclusion here is a very clear mitigation, clearly saves. 528 00:43:05.200 --> 00:43:06.180 So what's next? 529 00:43:09.210 --> 00:43:15.000 In our studies, we have included the detailed breakdowns on where are the 530 00:43:15.000 --> 00:43:20.910 seats, as Keith just presented, you know, for the PDX case study, we found, you know, the benefits 531 00:43:20.910 --> 00:43:26.010 are from it saves lives, the speed, the return to the home and the workspace. 532 00:43:26.190 --> 00:43:28.020 It avoids the business interruption. 533 00:43:28.300 --> 00:43:29.760 It reduced the repair cost. 534 00:43:30.420 --> 00:43:36.180 So similarly, our national study in other areas, we include all the similar analysis here. 535 00:43:36.180 --> 00:43:42.180 I show you I showed the study, you have a major accident exceeding 536 00:43:42.390 --> 00:43:44.010 the minimum requirement. 537 00:43:44.400 --> 00:43:50.060 You can see all the benefit categories that the countries in the given category. 538 00:43:50.220 --> 00:43:52.890 So that's where your saves come from. 539 00:43:56.300 --> 00:44:01.640 So now if we break down this benefits categories are the length length 540 00:44:02.150 --> 00:44:05.700 to the beneficiaries like this to who will benefit from this. 541 00:44:06.110 --> 00:44:07.760 Here is how it looks like. 542 00:44:11.360 --> 00:44:16.710 So basically, the owners, tenants, developers, lenders, public, 543 00:44:17.150 --> 00:44:21.820 public sector in our whole society will all benefit from it. 544 00:44:23.810 --> 00:44:25.130 But if you look at. 545 00:44:26.620 --> 00:44:32.560 But if you look at who are the peers, who pays for the medication outweigh the cost in our 546 00:44:32.560 --> 00:44:38.020 current practice, most of these are come from the owners with some help from public 547 00:44:38.020 --> 00:44:42.840 assistance in the various mitigation grants that are managed by the agencies. 548 00:44:43.890 --> 00:44:49.220 This unfair allocation of the cost, this is the response activities, 549 00:44:49.770 --> 00:44:52.080 I think they should surprise No. 550 00:44:52.080 --> 00:44:57.210 One, that the market for us to not produce the results billions current practice. 551 00:45:00.610 --> 00:45:06.220 So last year, the Multi-Hazard Mitigation Council, Committee on Finance, Insurance and Real 552 00:45:06.220 --> 00:45:12.070 Estate released this road map called the Resilience, Resilience Incentivization, 553 00:45:12.820 --> 00:45:18.160 which calls for a collaborative approach, removes the silos and 554 00:45:18.160 --> 00:45:24.100 incentivizes the investors, owners, lenders, insurers, developers and the government to 555 00:45:24.100 --> 00:45:26.780 work together to increase the community resilience. 556 00:45:27.370 --> 00:45:32.800 In summary, if we develop more resilient communities, the government will spend 557 00:45:32.800 --> 00:45:36.800 less repairing and replacing the properties after disaster. 558 00:45:37.420 --> 00:45:43.300 The insurance payout for protecting properties will decrease and the property value and 559 00:45:43.300 --> 00:45:44.930 security will strengthen. 560 00:45:45.400 --> 00:45:47.640 It's a win win situation for everyone. 561 00:45:50.990 --> 00:45:56.360 In our effort, we have initiated some dialogues among the industry leaders 562 00:45:56.720 --> 00:46:00.980 for strategic collaboration across both the public and private sector. 563 00:46:01.970 --> 00:46:05.780 I want to share some of those tenets we identified in the process. 564 00:46:06.620 --> 00:46:12.560 So the first one is the investment gap, you know, with our mitigationsaves study. 565 00:46:12.590 --> 00:46:18.350 We estimate that the price tag to implement, to implement cost effective 566 00:46:18.350 --> 00:46:24.080 mitigation measures for our private sector begins will be over five hundred billion dollars. 567 00:46:25.370 --> 00:46:29.990 And of course, the beginning retrofit just one element with a hazard mitigation. 568 00:46:30.650 --> 00:46:35.770 So trillions of dollars may be necessary to upgrade the nation's infrastructure. 569 00:46:36.500 --> 00:46:42.200 So rebuilding the American road highway bridges along that asphalt can cost 570 00:46:42.200 --> 00:46:43.790 over one trillion dollars. 571 00:46:44.770 --> 00:46:50.710 When we add in other Lifeline's sectors, such as energy, communication, the enormity of this 572 00:46:50.710 --> 00:46:52.390 challenge becomes apparent. 573 00:46:54.220 --> 00:47:00.090 While while it is very exciting to see the federal government has stepped up for their effort, you know, 574 00:47:00.160 --> 00:47:05.830 for some of you heard of the FEMA's, building resilient infrastructure and the communities now as a BRIC 575 00:47:05.830 --> 00:47:10.370 program, there are there are still a lot of challenges out there. 576 00:47:11.560 --> 00:47:17.560 One of those as identified by agencies is the streamline the that grant 577 00:47:17.710 --> 00:47:19.320 application application process. 578 00:47:20.080 --> 00:47:24.430 So many of the grants have a cumbersome proposal and application improvement. 579 00:47:25.150 --> 00:47:30.670 This is a very challenging the sometimes impossible for the jurisdictions 580 00:47:31.000 --> 00:47:36.460 without sufficient resources to complete the process in the House. 581 00:47:37.090 --> 00:47:42.670 Because there are so many different grant programs out there and different agencies, it is 582 00:47:42.670 --> 00:47:47.360 sometimes impossible to figure out which one to apply, when to apply, how to qualify. 583 00:47:48.040 --> 00:47:53.950 So to continue to streamline this process at the federal level, what really increased the engagement 584 00:47:54.250 --> 00:47:57.310 from those under represented jurisdictions? 585 00:47:58.050 --> 00:48:03.360 And their strength and resilience will enhance our local, state and the nation 586 00:48:03.930 --> 00:48:04.950 national resilience. 587 00:48:06.310 --> 00:48:12.310 Also, we probably could quickly reach our conclusion here, you know, the federal investment itself won't be 588 00:48:12.310 --> 00:48:17.950 enough. How do we leverage those with the private sector investment, so 589 00:48:18.040 --> 00:48:23.320 our ongoing conversation with our debt, with the lenders insurance real estate expert, 590 00:48:23.980 --> 00:48:29.440 while there are very with support from all of those, that was the last key questions to be answered. 591 00:48:30.130 --> 00:48:36.010 So one, two key questions from this public sector is will the market recognize the 592 00:48:36.070 --> 00:48:37.860 value of a stronger buildings? 593 00:48:39.100 --> 00:48:44.620 You know, while we can do all this engineering analysis to prove that this is a good investment, 594 00:48:45.040 --> 00:48:50.820 but in the end, the consumer, the new owners are the final decision maker, would 595 00:48:50.830 --> 00:48:53.410 they be willing to pay the extra for that? 596 00:48:54.380 --> 00:48:58.570 Especially with our current parties, you know, they are the main ones to pay most of those costs. 597 00:48:59.720 --> 00:49:05.030 So this also leads to the next big gaps awareness gap. 598 00:49:06.040 --> 00:49:08.200 Do the public know what they get? 599 00:49:09.320 --> 00:49:15.320 You know, based on the national survey that found out not eight out of 10 Americans, 600 00:49:15.320 --> 00:49:18.290 they don't know, they don't worry about the being called. 601 00:49:19.190 --> 00:49:25.190 They just incorrectly assume that they are well protected from those disasters, they think 602 00:49:25.190 --> 00:49:27.110 they are virtually doubling very, very. 603 00:49:28.160 --> 00:49:34.070 But the reality is that about two thirds of the US, two stations don't currently 604 00:49:34.070 --> 00:49:35.120 have the latest code. 605 00:49:36.590 --> 00:49:42.290 And our current real estate market simply don't recognize those stronger and 606 00:49:42.290 --> 00:49:48.110 safer buildings because they are their focus, location, location and many other things, take them 607 00:49:48.590 --> 00:49:53.990 overseas. The safety, when you think about the the housing is the most 608 00:49:54.320 --> 00:49:55.880 single, most important investment. 609 00:49:56.540 --> 00:50:00.750 Ignore those safety features is kind of amazing how this works in the current market. 610 00:50:02.000 --> 00:50:03.270 So how do we change that? 611 00:50:03.740 --> 00:50:06.650 How do we create the demand from the market? 612 00:50:07.250 --> 00:50:11.160 I think which will be a key to our success of being a resilientnation. 613 00:50:15.130 --> 00:50:20.710 So the last point I want to make here today is where to prioritize investment in how 614 00:50:20.710 --> 00:50:26.440 strong they should build and where to build, how to cut the climate change 615 00:50:26.440 --> 00:50:29.740 factors. What does the functional recovery means? 616 00:50:31.570 --> 00:50:35.490 You know how to link that those back to the investment decisions. 617 00:50:37.350 --> 00:50:43.190 I want to share a great resource that was developed by FEMA and NIST in response 618 00:50:43.190 --> 00:50:49.070 to the congressional mandate, which laid out a path for us to have a community 619 00:50:49.070 --> 00:50:54.560 resilience after some of those key questions identified, some of those big gaps. 620 00:50:56.010 --> 00:51:01.920 Among those I want to point out, one of the areas that NIBS has been 621 00:51:02.220 --> 00:51:07.680 working on through is a seismic safety council is trying to create a National Lifeline 622 00:51:07.680 --> 00:51:13.320 organization. The lifeline here will include sectors like energy, 623 00:51:13.320 --> 00:51:18.840 transportation, communication, water, wastewater, energy, emergency service, 624 00:51:18.870 --> 00:51:23.680 etc.. Why, this is why this is important. 625 00:51:24.380 --> 00:51:30.150 You know, if you think you live in a community, all of these sectors, your gas, your water, transport, 626 00:51:30.530 --> 00:51:36.500 transportation, they are all interconnected and they are all interdependent to serve 627 00:51:36.770 --> 00:51:38.210 for the for the consumers. 628 00:51:38.780 --> 00:51:43.840 But in reality, when you talk about all those sectors is kind of self regulated. 629 00:51:44.150 --> 00:51:44.990 They are silent. 630 00:51:45.590 --> 00:51:47.690 They all follow their own best practice. 631 00:51:48.280 --> 00:51:53.900 And in reality, they don't talk to each other, which means, you know, after big event, 632 00:51:54.320 --> 00:52:00.110 if your hospital are there, but the bridge connect to the hospital make not meaning the 633 00:52:00.410 --> 00:52:01.970 transportation has the job. 634 00:52:01.970 --> 00:52:04.790 Just they don't they don't agree with each other. 635 00:52:04.800 --> 00:52:10.190 So we really need to create this umbrella umbrella lovelight organization 636 00:52:11.030 --> 00:52:16.550 that can work across the industries and communities in a booth for coordination of 637 00:52:16.820 --> 00:52:22.670 setting the same performance goals, also to provide the technical support to 638 00:52:22.670 --> 00:52:24.020 infrastructure operators. 639 00:52:24.230 --> 00:52:30.170 To achieve these goals, we need to create this dialogue across these siloed sectors. 640 00:52:30.650 --> 00:52:32.570 Now they are all on their own. 641 00:52:35.350 --> 00:52:41.080 So I think this is my last slide, so mitigation is most effective when you think 642 00:52:41.080 --> 00:52:43.810 ahead and act before a disaster. 643 00:52:44.700 --> 00:52:50.610 Resilience shouldn't be a luxury, but affordable, and it makes economic 644 00:52:50.610 --> 00:52:54.530 sense. With that, I'll turn this back to Steve. 645 00:52:55.320 --> 00:52:55.690 Thank you. 646 00:52:57.690 --> 00:53:03.360 Great, thank you very much, JQ We have only about 647 00:53:03.360 --> 00:53:09.060 six minutes left, so I'm going to start with a question 648 00:53:09.060 --> 00:53:14.100 for Dan, and that is a resilient runway. 649 00:53:14.520 --> 00:53:19.320 How did you come to understand that a resilient runway was an investment that was needed? 650 00:53:21.120 --> 00:53:21.640 Thank you. 651 00:53:22.160 --> 00:53:27.870 You know, the understanding of the science of the Cascadia subduction zone 652 00:53:27.870 --> 00:53:33.840 earthquake has been really evolving over the past couple of decades and it's become much 653 00:53:33.840 --> 00:53:36.570 more prominent issue here in the Pacific Northwest. 654 00:53:37.170 --> 00:53:42.690 I was fortunate enough in 2017 to take a joint kind of private public 655 00:53:43.620 --> 00:53:49.560 best practices trip to the Tohoku region of Japan, which was six years 656 00:53:49.560 --> 00:53:54.440 after they suffered the Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami. 657 00:53:55.260 --> 00:54:02.070 And seeing the scale of destruction in a community that was isolated, 658 00:54:02.580 --> 00:54:08.370 prone to landslides on the ocean, really had a 659 00:54:08.370 --> 00:54:09.620 strong impact to me. 660 00:54:10.260 --> 00:54:16.140 And we also visited the Sendai airport, which actually had some stone column 661 00:54:16.140 --> 00:54:18.540 mitigation, some strengthening of the runway. 662 00:54:19.260 --> 00:54:24.450 And what was fascinating to me was that runway was inundated by the tsunami, 663 00:54:25.710 --> 00:54:31.500 also went through the ground motions, and 664 00:54:31.500 --> 00:54:37.290 yet with help actually from the US Marine Corps and a couple of days, they 665 00:54:37.290 --> 00:54:43.020 scraped the debris off the runway and were resuming emergency operations within three to four days. 666 00:54:43.650 --> 00:54:49.260 And they were resuming rudimentary commercial service within three weeks to support the 667 00:54:49.260 --> 00:54:50.290 region's recovery. 668 00:54:50.910 --> 00:54:56.430 And when I think about the geography of the Pacific Northwest, as Keith mentioned, 669 00:54:56.940 --> 00:55:02.430 and its isolation between the Cascade Mountains to the east, the coast range to the 670 00:55:02.430 --> 00:55:08.100 west, and of course, then the coastal area, which is not heavily populated, but still has a lot of 671 00:55:08.970 --> 00:55:14.820 towns and small cities on it and the likelihood of their impact with the tsunami and getting 672 00:55:14.820 --> 00:55:17.460 relief to all these isolated regions. 673 00:55:18.480 --> 00:55:24.150 When I came back, one of my friends asked me, what's the one thing you're going to do after you took this trip? 674 00:55:24.150 --> 00:55:27.170 And I said, now we've got to get a runway in the Willamette Valley. 675 00:55:27.630 --> 00:55:33.570 That's the most important thing we can do for our community, is have a place people can come in stage and 676 00:55:33.570 --> 00:55:37.470 get moving on the recovery and the relief after an event like this. 677 00:55:41.360 --> 00:55:42.450 All right, thank you, Dan. 678 00:55:43.400 --> 00:55:49.250 We had a question that just came into the Q&A asking if the panel 679 00:55:49.250 --> 00:55:55.040 was aware of the Oregon Office of Emergency Management Cascadia subduction zone 680 00:55:55.040 --> 00:55:57.350 playbook that was developed a few years ago. 681 00:55:58.190 --> 00:56:03.770 I believe I know the answer to that, but I'll turn it to either Dan or Keith for response. 682 00:56:05.500 --> 00:56:06.340 Sure, I'll start. 683 00:56:06.550 --> 00:56:12.520 Yes, that we're well aware of it, we've had port engineering staff sit on the Oregon Seismic 684 00:56:13.660 --> 00:56:18.130 Committee and we're also participating quite a bit right now with 685 00:56:19.360 --> 00:56:24.910 the Regional Readiness Assessment Program through DHS as well. 686 00:56:24.940 --> 00:56:27.880 So, yeah, all these things putting them together. 687 00:56:27.880 --> 00:56:31.150 But I think I think the challenges it's evolving. 688 00:56:31.150 --> 00:56:36.640 Right. Were constantly evolving our knowledge of what we can and can't do and what our highest priorities are. 689 00:56:36.670 --> 00:56:39.100 So, yes, we're well aware of that and connected with OEM. 690 00:56:40.770 --> 00:56:41.620 Great, thank you. 691 00:56:41.640 --> 00:56:47.520 And I know that we've also connected some studies at my agency has been working on with the work 692 00:56:47.520 --> 00:56:48.790 at PDX as well. 693 00:56:48.810 --> 00:56:50.430 So appreciate that answer. 694 00:56:51.750 --> 00:56:54.930 Next question is actually for Keith Porter. 695 00:56:54.930 --> 00:57:00.450 And that question, is the project team identified or quantified five benefit 696 00:57:00.450 --> 00:57:06.120 categories, people whose jobs depend on the airport, people whose lives depend on 697 00:57:06.120 --> 00:57:11.700 medevac, and three others besides those five categories of beneficiary who else 698 00:57:11.700 --> 00:57:12.760 stands to gain? 699 00:57:12.820 --> 00:57:15.590 Portland gets to make its runway resilient? 700 00:57:16.080 --> 00:57:19.250 And who else would you tell about the study if you could reach them? 701 00:57:22.340 --> 00:57:27.350 I think the people that I would want to want to know about this study, 702 00:57:28.370 --> 00:57:34.310 any emergency manager for any airport, first of all, anyone who 703 00:57:34.310 --> 00:57:39.970 allocates infrastructure, the upcoming infrastructure budget should know about this study. 704 00:57:39.980 --> 00:57:46.070 Anyone who tries to optimize infrastructure budget over decades 705 00:57:46.070 --> 00:57:52.070 in light of climate change, in light of earthquakes should know about the capabilities to make the 706 00:57:52.070 --> 00:57:56.140 business case like the one we've we've done here. 707 00:57:56.150 --> 00:58:01.940 And I would also tag anyone who does anything about the safety assessment 708 00:58:01.940 --> 00:58:06.980 program, the post disaster building safety evaluators have to understand 709 00:58:07.280 --> 00:58:13.160 how valuable that service is because I don't think we have enough 710 00:58:13.670 --> 00:58:15.590 building safety evaluators in the country. 711 00:58:15.590 --> 00:58:17.840 I think we have a severe shortage. 712 00:58:18.710 --> 00:58:23.480 And it's only through studies like this that we're going to realize how severe that shortage is. 713 00:58:26.860 --> 00:58:27.680 Thank you, Keith. 714 00:58:27.700 --> 00:58:33.610 I realize we are now right at two o'clock, I'm just going to ask my 715 00:58:33.820 --> 00:58:38.920 NIBS colleagues, we did have one additional question that came into the Q&A. 716 00:58:39.850 --> 00:58:44.650 But I think we probably need to respect everyone's time at this point 717 00:58:45.850 --> 00:58:52.000 and thank our panelists for their participation today and also 718 00:58:52.000 --> 00:58:58.580 want to just express my appreciation to NIBS for leading the study. 719 00:58:58.810 --> 00:59:04.300 We're working with the PDX team and 720 00:59:04.570 --> 00:59:07.300 also for putting this presentation together. 721 00:59:07.300 --> 00:59:12.670 I think it was a great opportunity to actually show the value of mitigation 722 00:59:14.350 --> 00:59:18.470 in a in a real life scenario. 723 00:59:19.300 --> 00:59:25.270 So at that JQ, I don't know if there's anything else from the NIBS perspective that we 724 00:59:25.270 --> 00:59:27.040 need to cover before we close. 725 00:59:28.960 --> 00:59:30.340 And that's all thanks to Steve. 726 00:59:31.630 --> 00:59:34.630 Thank you all very much for your time today and for sharing your knowledge. 727 00:59:35.140 --> 00:59:36.250 We're glad you are able to make it. 728 00:59:38.450 --> 00:59:38.980 Thank you all. 729 00:59:39.770 --> 00:59:40.490 Thank you, everyone. 730 00:59:41.570 --> 00:59:43.030 Bye bye now.